Arizona is one of the seven states that will shift the balance of American power following the 2020 Census, if growth patterns follow the July 2019 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
By Eric Jay Toll for the PHXNewsroom
The annual estimate of population released Dec. 30, tied Arizona as the second fastest-growing state in the nation with its population almost hitting 7.3 million, 121,000 more than 2018. Arizona’s 1.7 percent growth rate was more than triple the U.S. 0.5 percent growth rate. Arizona added 886,429 people since the 2010 census, an increase big enough to garner one new Congressional district. The population estimate gives Arizona almost 872,000 people more than its 6.4 million 2010 decennial census population.
Last year, that meant 330 people every day called Arizona their new home. According to Bloomberg News, 200 of the new Arizonans are moving to the Phoenix area every day. In comparison, an average of 277 people daily leave the New York City metro every day, says Bloomberg News. In the Los Angeles area, 201 leaves daily, and 161 are exiting the Chicago metro.
“The Census estimates are higher than the state population we’re projecting,” said Thara Salamone, senior demographer with the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity. “We’re showing 7,187,990 as our 2019 population estimate. The Census tends to run higher.”
In 2010, the actual 2010 Census number was about 15,000 less than the Census-estimated 2010 population. Arizona’s estimate for 2019 is 91,000 fewer people than the Census projection.
Accurate Census Count is Local Responsibility
The real bottom line will be the accuracy of the decennial census on April 1, 2020. The official number determines which states will lose congressional representation and which states add a representative in the nation’s Capitol.
“It’s incumbent on local governments to obtain an accurate population count,” said Kim Brace, executive director of Election Data Services, in Manassas, Virginia. “While the 1941 formula for reapportionment is complex but well-established, it is still possible that there can be tweaks that affect population numbers.”
Gaining a congressional seat has more impact than just one more representative heading to Washington. The new seat also adds one more electoral vote. Arizona would have 12 votes for president.
“It’s a zero-sum game,” said Richard Herrera, associated professor of Political Science at Arizona State University School of Politics and Global Studies in Tempe. “There are only 435 seats in the House (of Representatives). Population growth and geographic shifts move those seats around.”
A little tweak in counting can have a big impact on a state, according to Brace. While Arizona appears comfortably set for one new seat, its gain is seat number 425 out of 435 congressional districts allocated across the 50 states. All the migration out of California to Arizona likely brought with it one of California’s Congressional seats; the first time the state has ever lost representation. In 2000, a last-minute tweak shifted one new Congressional seat from Utah to North Carolina, according to historical data tracked by Election Data Services.
Growth continues in the West
Only Idaho, with 1.6 million people and a 2.1 percent growth rate, topped Arizona’s growth rate. Nevada and Utah share the second position with 1.7 percent growth rates after the Census Bureau rounded percentages. Utah now has 2.8 million residents and Nevada has 2.7 million. Texas’ 1.3 percent growth rate rounded out the top five positions with its population now topping 25 million people.
Projected to join Arizona with one new Congressional seat each is Colorado, Idaho, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon. Florida likely gains two seats and Texas potentially picks up three.
California is the only western state and Alabama is the only southern state likely to lose representation in Congress, joining single-seat losses in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia.
Arizona has gained one new Congressional district in every reapportionment beginning in 1960. Only Florida and Texas can share that claim.
Arizona Growth Rate Accelerates
Arizona’s growth rate has been accelerating over the past decade. In 2011, at the edge of the Great Recession trough, only a 1 percent year-over-year growth rate was reported. Halfway through the teens, the growth rate hit 1.5 percent. This year’s 1.7 percent growth rate is the highest the state reached in the past ten years.
The accelerating growth rate, combined with the state’s population increase, means proportionally more people in Arizona each year than most other states. Only five states have posted top-10 growth rates over the past decade. Arizona, joined by Utah, Texas, Florida and Colorado, are the only states in that category.
In 2011, Arizona’s 80,000 population increase was 2.9 percent of the U.S. population growth. In 2019, the state’s one-year 121,000 population growth was 7.8 percent of the U.S. population increase—nearly triple the population growth contribution compared to a decade earlier.
Other States’ Growth Shifts Electoral Power South and West
The Census Bureau and California’s own Department of Finance say California had its slowest growth rate since before the 1849 Gold Rush, growing by 0.1 percent over 2018 and tied at 36th in growth with Ohio, Kentucky, Massachusetts and Kansas. Inside California, the state-estimated population for Silicon Valley and the Bay Area was less than 0.3 percent, with Los Angeles county reporting no measurable population growth.
Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Jersey had no measurable population growth in 2019, and eight states, including Illinois and New York, saw population declines.
With the U.S. population growing at its slowest rate ever, 0.5 percent, Western states are poised to add a projected seven new Congressional seats, while Southern states likely add three new seats. The Northeast and Midwest could lose eight seats, with the ones from California and Alabama rounding out the loss list.
How Arizona’s Population and Jobs are Growing
Over the past decade, nearly two-thirds of the 867,000-person new population has come from in-migration. With only a third of population growth classified as “natural” population growth, there were nearly 288,000 newly-born residents in the state over the past ten years. The balance of the population growth comes from 454,000 residents moving from other states and 142,000 arriving from other countries. The 2019 population estimates do not break out points of origin for domestic or international migrants.
Salamone said that Arizona’s population is seeing a boost in boomers moving in, but that overall, the median age appears to be declining. That datum means that there is also similar growth in the workforce population and availability of jobs.
In year-over-year data, the number of Arizona jobs increased 2.8 percent in July 2019 to 2.9 million workers, according to data from the AOEO. In July 2010, Arizona was nearly at the recession’s employment trough with 2.4 million jobs. Over the decade, the state gained more than new 500,000 jobs during the period in which there were 596,000 new residents of all ages from in-migration.
The two data sets—while not directly comparable—show Arizona sporting healthy parallel growth trends.
